How bad will the Utah Jazz have to be to get a top 2023 draft pick?

Paolo Banchero, right, poses for a photo with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the No. 1 pick overall by the Orlando Magic in the NBA draft, Thursday, June 23, 2022, in New York.

John Minchillo, Associated Press

This summer as the Utah Jazz have traded away franchise cornerstones Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, the largely prevailing thought has been that the team will be in position for a top draft pick next summer.

There is good reason for Jazz fans to want a top pick, as many consider prospects such as French big man Victor Wembanyama and G League guard Scoot Henderson to be outstanding talents.

But how bad will the Jazz actually have to be next season in order to get a top pick? In short, worse than perhaps many realize.

For the argument’s sake, let’s call a “top pick” one of the first three of the draft, as the teams with the three worst records in the league during the 2022-23 season will all have equal odds of landing the top pick, at 14% (that changed in 2019. Before then, the worst team had a 25% chance, the second-worst had a 19.9% chance and the third-worst had a 15.6% chance).

Since 2019 when the lottery odds changed, the team with the third-worst record in the league has finished with an average of just 20.5 wins.

The Detroit Pistons won 23 last season, the Orlando Magic won 21 year before that, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Cleveland Cavaliers won 19 in 2020 and the Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns won 19 in 2019.

Again, that is the average of just the …read more

Source:: Deseret News – Sports News


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